Mortgage Resources

Search with GoPrime Mortgage

Check out our guides, tools and research for expert help on all your home mortgage and marketing questions!

Mostly Charts And Quick Takes on Housing and Rates

December 18, 2020

It’s a busy time of year on a busier-than-normal year, so I’ll keep this short. Those interested in more detail can click through the links.

One major theme in the 2nd half of 2020 is that mortgage rates have been insulated from market drama–walking a different path than their usual best friend, 10yr Treasury yields.  If you ask Treasuries, the big bounce in rates is already well underway.

20201218 nl2.png

Here’s how mortgage rates have bucked that trend:

20201218 nl4.png

Last week’s newsletter goes into more detail on WHY the insulation exists (revisit it by clicking here), but the important thing to know is that we’re getting closer to “normal” day by day.  Once we get there, mortgage rates will be less willing to defy their Treasury counterparts.

 

20201218 NL6.png

As to the likely fate of Treasury yields, there’s room for movement in either direction. In the bigger picture, rates  will take cues from the economic recovery–a multifaceted issue in itself–and the success of vaccine production/distribution.

Vaccine news already had a big impact in November.  Vaccine headlines have since ceded the spotlight to fiscal stimulus headlines.  While there will be one more spat of volatility after congress decides on stimulus (allegedly, before Christmas), the bond market is largely cooling down at this point and getting ready for the next big move.  Even the mighty Federal Reserve–frequently the most important consideration for interest rates–failed to stir markets this week (any small scale reaction is completely lost inside the red lines below).

20201218 nl1.png

Another theme over the past 6 months has been stunningly strong housing numbers.  This week’s construction and builder confidence reports are just the 2 latest additions to the list.

20201218 NL5.png

Related News & Articles

Neighborhood Highlight – Flanders Mill

The Gallatin Valley is growing quickly enough that it can be hard to keep up with the number of neighborhoods and developments in the area.  We’re here to help!  In this blog post, we’ll take a look at Flanders Mill in Bozeman.   Where Is It? Flanders Mill is...

Neighborhood Highlight – River Rock

The Gallatin Valley is growing quickly enough that it can be hard to keep up with the number of neighborhoods and developments in the area.  We’re here to help!  In this blog post, we’ll take a look at River Rock in Belgrade.   Where Is It? River Rock is located...

Have Some Doggone Fun!

Best Dog Friendly Digs in Bozeman   It’s not an unlikely occurrence that gatherings in Bozeman have equal numbers of pets to people – we really are a pet lover’s town. When someone thinks about bringing their dog with them on outdoor activities, Bozeman offers...