In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 (i.e. the big drop in rates!) will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a uniquely interesting year for rates. Granted, there are plenty of other years with the...
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Why Do Rates Care About Brexit?
The UK's attempt to exit the EU (aka "Brexit") is back in the news. UK voters decided to part ways with the EU in 2016, but it's taken this long to hammer out the details. After an extension of the original deadline earlier this year, the new deadline of October 31,...
The Trade Deal Just Made Your Mortgage Rate Higher, But There’s a Catch
It would have been hard to make it through this week without hearing about Friday's trade deal progress, but how does it affect you? At face value, a healthy trade partnership is good for the global economy, but if you need a mortgage any time soon, the trade deal...
Don’t Believe The News on Mortgage Rates
As of Thursday, most major news outlets and even several important trade organizations ran headlines claiming mortgage rates were flat this week. But rates are actually much lower compared to last week. What's up with that? The culprit is the weekly mortgage rate...
Housing Market Ended Summer With a Bang
Looking at the calendar (and the weather, depending on where you live), summer may seem like an increasingly distant memory, but for housing market data, things are just heating up. Whether we're talking about the housing market or almost any other aspect of the...
ONCE AGAIN: THE FED DOESN’T SET MORTGAGE RATES!
While this newsletter series has said it many times before and in many different ways, it bears repeating (and perhaps some extra emphasis this time around): THE FED DOESN'T SET MORTGAGE RATES. Here are several recent examples of the same thesis for those that really...
Worst Week For Rates in 6 Years. Fed Rate Cut Won’t Help
Remember the summer of 2013? Fans of low rates would rather forget it. Specifically, the 2nd to last week in June 2013 marked one of the most abrupt mortgage rate jumps on record. You'd have to go back to 1987 to see anything bigger. The first week of July 2013 was...
Best Year For Rates Since 2002, How Low Can They Go?
Mortgage rates are on a tear. As of this week, 2019 is now the best year in more than a decade in terms of the peak-to-trough move. But there's a catch: 2019 isn't over yet, and there's always a risk that rates move higher between now and the end of the year. So,...
Let’s Shatter Some Housing/Mortgage Misconceptions
It's easy enough for media outlets to accurately report the underlying facts when it comes to mortgage rates and housing. It seems far harder to find consensus when it comes to interpreting those facts. Let's clear up some of the misconceptions driving this...