Interest rates have enjoyed several months of prosperity without any major bounce back toward higher levels, but that might be changing as of this week. Could this be the last time we see rates this low for a while? The answer depends on the definition of 'a while.' ...
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Does Housing Care About The Shutdown?
As long as we're talking about government shutdowns that last a few weeks, past precedent is highly informative, but the longer the current shutdown continues, the more we'll be in uncharted territory. This is especially true for the housing market. The only relevant...
Is Everything Already Changing in 2019?
It was a long December for the stock market, which had its worst month since the financial crisis (in terms of % change). Meanwhile, interest rates had their best month since June 2016. The size and direction of those moves caused speculation about a big reversal at...
Big Risks and Opportunities Heading Into The New Year
2018 has been an interesting year to say the least. Stocks hit all-time highs and are now in the midst of their worst month on record in terms of outright losses. Rates hit their highest levels in at least 7 years but have fallen fairly quickly heading into the end of...
What’s Up With Market Madness After Fed’s Rate Hike?
Last week we discussed the possibility of mortgage rates continuing to fall despite the near certainty of this week's Fed rate hike. That's exactly what happened, but it was the move in stocks that got the most attention--not a surprising result given the following...
The Fed Will Hike, But Rates Could Keep Falling
Last week, we discussed a surprising spike in market volatility. Fortunately, one of the volatile moves involved interest rates dropping to their lowest levels since September. This week has been quite different. The volatility is gone. Rates have bounced modestly...
Just When You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any Crazier
Last week's newsletter asked whether or not the highest interest rates of this economic cycle are behind us. At the time, this was a relatively new and bold assertion. Now, this week makes that assessment look tame by comparison. Specifically,...
Are The Highest Interest Rates Behind Us?
Relative to the last 2 years of pain for rates, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight, as the 10yr Treasury yield (an important benchmark for longer-term rates like mortgages) broke through a key level. 3.05% had consistently blocked the advance of falling...
Housing Showing Some Signs of Stabilizing
It wouldn't be 2018 in the housing market if there wasn't at least one report painting a gloomier picture. The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index (or "builder confidence" for short) did those honors this week. Up until now, builder confidence...