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From a strictly economic standpoint, this week saw the release of several impressive reports. It just so happened the 3 best reports were also the 3 most important reports (based on their typical ability to cause a reaction in financial markets). Chief among these was...
There are a few different ways to measure volatility in the bond market, but one of the simplest is via the average daily trading range. That particular metric is showing volatility in line with the lowest levels in decades. The lower volatility goes, and the longer...
Home sales numbers and other housing-related data have been hot topics of conversation recently. Some say positive housing trends are over. Others say it's no big deal. The truth continues to be somewhere in between. It's clear that we've turned some sort of corner...
There's no question that some housing markets around the country are showing signs of cooling. Price reductions are starting to show up again after an extended absence, the average home is staying on the market a bit longer, and inventory is finally coming up from the...
News has been pretty grim recently for interest rates and the housing market. This week's developments may provide a glimmer of hope. Granted, it could turn out to be false hope, but for now, let's focus on the glimmer! Freddie Mac reported a medium-big move...
Rates ended the week at the best levels since late May. That sounds pretty great, right?! Unfortunately, there's a fairly big catch. The problem with the past month and a half is that the range has been excruciatingly narrow. In fact, if you've been in the market for...
As expected, the Fed raised rates this week. Mortgage rates and 10yr Treasury yields (which aren't directly tied to the Fed Funds Rate) actually moved lower for the rest of the week. How did that happen and what might it mean for the bigger picture? Remember, the...
The Federal Reserve meets 8 times a year to set its policy rate: The Fed Funds Rate. At next week's meeting, a "rate hike" is a foregone conclusion. And that's precisely why it won't matter. The financial market is the quintessential "discounting mechanism." That...
Italian political drama already had an impressive impact on US interest rates last week. This week brought more surprises and even bigger reactions for better and worse (and in that order). Last week's newsletter contains a fairly detailed discussion on the Italy...